According to Charlie Bilello, US jobs increased by less than 1% year over year, the slowest pace since March 2021. Source: Charlie Bilello, X post on Sep 15, 2025. According to Charlie Bilello, over the past 50 years this degree of labor-market weakness preceded a recession and a spike in the unemployment rate 100% of the time, a macro risk flag traders can incorporate into positioning and risk management. Source: Charlie Bilello, X post on Sep 15, 2025.